Don't Believe The Hype: Oil Markets Far From Recovery
By Tyler Durden
Authored by Arthur Berman via OilPrice.com,
Global oil inventories are falling because of OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts, but the road to market balance will be long.
Production cuts have removed approximately 1.8 million barrels per day (mmb/d) of liquids from the world market since November 2016 (Figure 1).
(Click to enlarge)
Figure 1. OPEC-NOPEC Have Cut 1.8 mmb/d Liquids Since November 2016. Source: EIA April 2017 STEO, EIA International Data and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Saudi Arabia has cut 619 kb/d (35 percent of total) and the Gulf States Cooperation Council—including Saudi Arabia—has cut 1,159 kb/d (65 percent of the total). Other significant contributors outside the GCC include Iraq (12 percent), Russia (12 percent) and Mexico (9 percent) (Table 1). Nigeria’s cuts are probably involuntary since it was exempted from the OPEC agreement. Iran and Libya–also exempted–and both increased production.
Table 1. Summary table of OPEC-Non OPEC production cuts, November 2016 through March 2017. Source: EIA April 2017 STEO, EIA International Data and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
Inventories and The Forward Curve
OECD inventories began falling in July 2016, four months before the OPEC production cuts were finalized. Stock levels have declined approximately 107 mmb according to recently revised EIA STEO data (Figure 2). That includes the